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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
← Draftanomics
Past class — locked, then graded

2015 NFL Draft

A past class. The model never saw these players when it learned — this board is what Draftanomics would have said on draft night, graded against how the careers actually played out.

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Top 64 of 254 prospects in this draft class
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64 of 64 prospects shown · ranked by the career-value model

Blue Chip

6 prospects · picks #1–#6

Day-1 starter ceiling. The class's franchise pieces.

1
Mark Glowinski

Mark Glowinski

Blue Chiprank#1$12.2MG·West Virginia·6'4", 307 lb·$12.2M($3.9M–$20.4M)·405.20⚠ barely scouted

Blue-chip G ceiling. What the model likes: charting total career snaps, strength of schedule.

Bust probability4%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #134SEA
2
Shaq Thompson

Shaq Thompson

Blue ChipOLB·Washington·6'0", 228 lb·21.0 yrs·$19.4M·404.64⚠ barely scouted

Blue-chip OLB ceiling. What the model likes: position role purity, HS recruit rating.

Career outlookElite 12%(tails only)
Bust probability25%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #25CARY1 4.2
3
T.J. Yeldon

T.J. Yeldon

Blue Chiprank#3$10.5MRB·Alabama·6'1", 226 lb·21.6 yrs·$10.5M($4.5M–$16.5M)·404.61⚠ barely scouted

Blue-chip RB ceiling. What the model likes: production trajectory, charting total career snaps.

Bust probability· low confidence10%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #36JAXY1 17.6
4
Darius Philon

Darius Philon

Blue ChipDT·Arkansas·6'1", 298 lb·21.3 yrs·$9.6M($0.3M–$18.9M)·405.00⚠ barely scouted

Blue-chip DT ceiling. What the model likes: charting total career snaps, HS recruit rating.

Bust probability27%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #192SDGY1 5.3
5
Martrell Spaight

Martrell Spaight

Blue ChipOLB·Arkansas·21.7 yrs·$8.7M⚠ barely scouted

Blue-chip OLB ceiling. What the model likes: charting total career snaps, HS recruit rating.

Career outlookElite 14%(tails only)
Bust probability21%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #141WASY1 0.1
6
Danielle Hunter

Danielle Hunter

Blue ChipEDGE·LSU·6'5", 252 lb·20.5 yrs·$24.9M($15.6M–$34.2M)·404.57⚠ barely scouted

Blue-chip EDGE ceiling. What the model likes: charting total career snaps, HS recruit rating.

Bust probability9%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #88MINY1 4.5

1st Round

26 prospects · picks #7–#32

Year-1 starter probability. First-round capital.

7
Kwon Alexander

Kwon Alexander

1st RoundOLB·LSU·6'1", 227 lb·20.7 yrs·$20M·404.55⚠ barely scouted

First-round OLB profile. What the model likes: charting total career snaps, HS recruit rating.

Bust probability17%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #124TAMY1 5.7
8
Leonard Williams

Leonard Williams

1st RoundEDGE·USC·20.9 yrs·$34.6M($25.3M–$44M)⚠ barely scouted

First-round EDGE profile. What the model likes: charting total career snaps, HS recruit rating.

Career outlookElite 38%
Bust probability20%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #6NYJY1 5.6
9
Malcom Brown

Malcom Brown

1st RoundDT·Texas·6'2", 319 lb·21.2 yrs·$10.6M($1.2M–$19.9M)·405.05⚠ barely scouted

First-round DT profile. What the model likes: charting total career snaps, HS recruit rating.

Career outlookElite 8%(tails only)
Bust probability27%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #32NWEY1 5.6
10
Shaquille Riddick

Shaquille Riddick

1st RoundEDGE·West Virginia·21.9 yrs·$16M($6.6M–$25.3M)⚠ barely scouted

First-round EDGE profile. What the model likes: charting total career snaps, HS recruit rating. Bust risk moderate (44%).

Career outlookElite 8%(tails only)
Bust probability44%Moderate risk
Plays like
NFL pick #158ARI
11
Trey Flowers

Trey Flowers

1st RoundEDGE·Arkansas·6'2", 266 lb·21.7 yrs·$15.2M($5.8M–$24.5M)·404.93⚠ barely scouted

First-round EDGE profile. What the model likes: charting total career snaps, strength of schedule.

Career outlookElite 9%(tails only)
Bust probability26%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #101NWEY1 6.1
12
Landon Collins

Landon Collins

1st RoundS·Alabama·6'0", 228 lb·21.3 yrs·$19.4M($12.6M–$26.2M)·404.53⚠ barely scouted

First-round S profile. What the model likes: charting total career snaps, HS recruit rating.

Career outlookElite 7%(tails only)
Bust probability· low confidence9%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #33NYGY1 5.8
13
Dorial Green-Beckham

Dorial Green-Beckham

1st RoundWR·Oklahoma·6'5", 237 lb·22.0 yrs·$12M($6M–$18M)·404.49⚠ barely scouted

First-round WR profile. What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Bust probability29%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #40TENY1 15.4
14
Jeremiah Poutasi

Jeremiah Poutasi

1st RoundG·Utah·6'5", 335 lb·$5.6M($0M–$13.8M)·405.32⚠ barely scouted

First-round G profile. What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Bust probability7%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #66TEN
15
Damien Wilson

Damien Wilson

1st RoundILB·Minnesota·6'0", 245 lb·21.9 yrs·$6.4M·404.77⚠ barely scouted

First-round ILB profile. What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Career outlookElite 8%(tails only)
Bust probability25%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #127DALY1 0.7
16
D.J. Humphries

D.J. Humphries

1st Roundrank#16$4.9MOT·Florida·6'5", 307 lb·$20.3M($12M–$28.5M)·405.12⚠ barely scouted

First-round OT profile. What the model likes: HS recruit rating, age.

Career outlookElite 10%(tails only)
Bust probability· low confidence4%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #24ARI
17
Nate Orchard

Nate Orchard

1st RoundEDGE·Utah·6'3", 250 lb·22.3 yrs·$12.6M($3.3M–$22M)·404.80⚠ barely scouted

First-round EDGE profile. What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Career outlookElite 7%(tails only)
Bust probability26%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #51CLEY1 5.8
18
Amari Cooper

Amari Cooper

1st Roundrank#18$4.5MWR·Alabama·6'1", 211 lb·20.9 yrs·$25.1M($19.1M–$31.1M)·404.42⚠ barely scouted

First-round WR profile. What the model likes: age, charting total career snaps.

Career outlookElite 9%(tails only)
Bust probability18%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #4OAKY1 17.7
19
Dante Fowler

Dante Fowler

1st RoundOLB·Florida·6'3", 261 lb·20.7 yrs·$23.5M·404.60⚠ barely scouted

First-round OLB profile. What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Career outlookElite 15%(tails only)
Bust probability21%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #3JAX
20
JaCorey Shepherd

JaCorey Shepherd

1st RoundCB·Kansas·5'11", 199 lb·22.1 yrs·$4.8M($0M–$11.6M)·404.62⚠ barely scouted

First-round CB profile. What the model likes: charting total career snaps, HS recruit rating. Bust risk moderate (43%).

Bust probability· low confidence43%Moderate risk
Plays like
NFL pick #191PHI
21
Frank Clark

Frank Clark

1st RoundEDGE·Michigan·6'3", 271 lb·21.9 yrs·$28M($18.7M–$37.3M)·404.79⚠ barely scouted

First-round EDGE profile. What the model likes: age, charting total career snaps.

Career outlookElite 9%(tails only)
Bust probability29%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #63SEAY1 5.9
22
Alex Carter

Alex Carter

1st RoundCB·Stanford·6'0", 196 lb·20.5 yrs·$4.3M($0M–$11.2M)·404.51⚠ barely scouted

First-round CB profile. What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Career outlookElite 8%(tails only)
Bust probability· low confidence9%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #80DET
23
Bud Dupree

Bud Dupree

1st RoundOLB·Kentucky·22.2 yrs·$30.9M⚠ barely scouted

First-round OLB profile. What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Career outlookElite 20%(tails only)
Bust probability21%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #22PITY1 5.3
24
Eli Harold

Eli Harold

1st RoundOLB·Virginia·6'3", 247 lb·21.3 yrs·$13.1M·404.60⚠ barely scouted

First-round OLB profile. What the model likes: HS recruit rating, age.

Bust probability21%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #79SFOY1 4.1
25
Andrus Peat

Andrus Peat

1st RoundOT·Stanford·6'7", 313 lb·$19.5M($11.3M–$27.8M)·405.18⚠ barely scouted

First-round OT profile. What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Career outlookElite 10%(tails only)
Bust probability· low confidence4%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #13NOR
26
Max Valles

Max Valles

1st RoundOLB·Virginia·6'5", 251 lb·20.7 yrs·$20M·404.83⚠ barely scouted

First-round OLB profile. What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Bust probability21%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #179OAK
27
Nelson Agholor

Nelson Agholor

1st Roundrank#27$3.7MWR·USC·6'0", 198 lb·21.9 yrs·$19.2M($13.2M–$25.2M)·404.42⚠ barely scouted

First-round WR profile. What the model likes: charting total career snaps, HS recruit rating.

Bust probability13%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #20PHIY1 12.6
28
Trent Brown

Trent Brown

1st RoundG·Florida·$13.7M($5.4M–$21.9M)⚠ barely scouted

First-round G profile. What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Bust probability6%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #244SFO
29
Todd Gurley

Todd Gurley

1st RoundRB·Georgia·6'1", 222 lb·20.7 yrs·$19.1M($13M–$25.1M)·404.52⚠ barely scouted

First-round RB profile. What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Bust probability· low confidence19%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #10STLY1 17.9
30
Arik Armstead

Arik Armstead

1st RoundDT·Oregon·21.4 yrs·$17.6M($8.3M–$26.9M)⚠ barely scouted

First-round DT profile. What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Career outlookElite 18%(tails only)
Bust probability16%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #17SFOY1 4.8
31
Cameron Erving

Cameron Erving

1st Roundrank#31$3.5MC·Florida St.·6'5", 313 lb·$14M($5.7M–$22.2M)·405.15⚠ barely scouted

First-round C profile. What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Career outlookElite 7%(tails only)
Bust probability4%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #19CLE
32
Jesse James

Jesse James

1st RoundTE·Penn St.·6'7", 261 lb·20.9 yrs·$7.6M($1.6M–$13.6M)·404.83⚠ barely scouted

First-round TE profile. What the model likes: college production, HS recruit rating.

Bust probability· low confidence26%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #160PITY1 8.7

Day 2

32 prospects · picks #33–#64

Year-1 contributor, year-3 starter timeline. Round 2-3 value.

33
P.J. Williams

P.J. Williams

Day 2CB·Florida St.·6'0", 194 lb·21.9 yrs·$6.9M($0.1M–$13.7M)·404.57⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Bust probability· low confidence25%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #78NOR
34
Ronald Darby

Ronald Darby

Day 2CB·Florida St.·5'11", 193 lb·21.3 yrs·$14.4M($7.6M–$21.2M)·404.38⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Career outlookElite 13%(tails only)
Bust probability· low confidence4%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #50BUFY1 5.8
35
Cedric Ogbuehi

Cedric Ogbuehi

Day 2rank#35$3.2MOT·Texas A&M·6'5", 306 lb·$7.1M($0M–$15.4M)·404.98⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: charting total career snaps, age.

Career outlookElite 9%(tails only)
Bust probability· low confidence6%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #21CIN
36
Tyler Kroft

Tyler Kroft

Day 2TE·Rutgers·6'5", 246 lb·22.5 yrs·$9.4M($3.4M–$15.4M)·404.75⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: production trajectory; the knock: power-5 production share.

Bust probability· low confidence31%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #85CINY1 7.6
37
Adrian Amos

Adrian Amos

Day 2S·Penn St.·6'0", 218 lb·22.0 yrs·$13.7M($6.9M–$20.5M)·404.56⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: charting total career snaps.

Career outlookElite 9%(tails only)
Bust probability· low confidence9%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #142CHIY1 5.3
38
Steven Nelson

Steven Nelson

Day 2CB·Oregon St.·5'10", 197 lb·22.3 yrs·$10.6M($3.8M–$17.4M)·404.49⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Bust probability· low confidence12%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #98KANY1 1.9
39
Mitch Morse

Mitch Morse

Day 2rank#39$2.9MG·Missouri·6'5", 305 lb·$14.1M($5.9M–$22.4M)·405.14⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: charting total career snaps, age.

Career outlookElite 8%(tails only)
Bust probability6%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #49KAN
40
Cedric Thompson

Cedric Thompson

Day 2S·Minnesota·22.2 yrs·$8.7M($1.9M–$15.5M)⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: position role purity, age.

Career outlookElite 10%(tails only)
Bust probability· low confidence33%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #150MIA
41
Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs

Day 2rank#41$2.8MWR·Maryland·6'0", 195 lb·21.4 yrs·$19.4M($13.4M–$25.4M)·404.46⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: HS recruit rating, age.

Bust probability24%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #146MINY1 17.2
42
Za'Darius Smith

Za'Darius Smith

Day 2EDGE·Kentucky·6'4", 274 lb·22.6 yrs·$17.3M($7.9M–$26.6M)·404.83⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Bust probability26%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #122BALY1 4.9
43
Tyrus Thompson

Tyrus Thompson

Day 2rank#43$2.7MOT·Oklahoma·6'5", 324 lb·$8.8M($0.6M–$17.1M)·405.35⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: charting total career snaps, age.

Bust probability· low confidence6%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #185MIN
44
Mario Edwards

Mario Edwards

Day 2DT·Florida St.·21.3 yrs·$14.7M($5.4M–$24M)⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Career outlookElite 11%(tails only)
Bust probability16%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #35OAKY1 5.9
45
Brett Hundley

Brett Hundley

Day 2rank#45QB·UCLA·6'3", 226 lb·21.9 yrs·—·404.63⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: production trajectory; the knock: power-5 production share.

Career outlookElite 12%(tails only)
Bust probability· low confidence23%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #147GNB
46
Jameis Winston

Jameis Winston

Day 2rank#46QB·Florida St.·6'4", 231 lb·21.3 yrs·—·404.97⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: HS recruit rating, production trajectory.

Career outlookElite 9%(tails only)
Bust probability· low confidence30%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #1TAMY1 16.3
47
Devin Funchess

Devin Funchess

Day 2rank#47$2.4MWR·Michigan·6'4", 232 lb·20.9 yrs·$8.5M($2.5M–$14.5M)·404.70⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: HS recruit rating, age.

Bust probability13%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #41CARY1 15.8
48
Joe Cardona

Joe Cardona

Day 2LS·Navy·6'2", 242 lb·$4.1M($1.2M–$6.9M)·404.91⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: HS recruit rating.

Bust probability29%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #166NWE
49
Bradley Pinion

Bradley Pinion

Day 2P·Clemson·6'5", 229 lb·20.9 yrs·$3.9M($1M–$6.8M)·405.18⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Bust probability32%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #165SFOY1 6.0
50
Eddie Goldman

Eddie Goldman

Day 2DT·Florida St.·6'4", 336 lb·21.3 yrs·$17.4M($8.1M–$26.7M)·405.28⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Bust probability17%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #39CHIY1 5.3
51
Andy Gallik

Andy Gallik

Day 2C·Boston Col.·6'2", 306 lb·$4.1M($0M–$12.4M)·405.50⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: HS recruit rating.

Bust probability8%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #208TEN
52
A.J. Derby

A.J. Derby

Day 2TE·Arkansas·23.6 yrs·$2.1M($0M–$8.1M)⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: charting total career snaps; the knock: age.

Bust probability· low confidence22%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #202NWE
53
Jalen Collins

Jalen Collins

Day 2CB·LSU·6'1", 203 lb·22.1 yrs·$8M($1.2M–$14.8M)·404.48⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: charting total career snaps; the knock: HS recruit rating.

Career outlookElite 15%(tails only)
Bust probability· low confidence33%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #42ATLY1 3.9
54
Shaq Mason

Shaq Mason

Day 2C·Georgia Tech·$16.9M($8.6M–$25.1M)⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: charting total career snaps.

Career outlookElite 8%(tails only)
Bust probability6%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #131NWE
55
Tre' Jackson

Tre' Jackson

Day 2G·Florida St.·6'4", 330 lb·$7.5M($0M–$15.8M)·405.52⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: charting total career snaps.

Bust probability8%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #111NWE
56
Jarvis Harrison

Jarvis Harrison

Day 2G·Texas A&M·6'4", 330 lb·$12.5M($4.2M–$20.7M)·405.19⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: charting total career snaps, age.

Bust probability4%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #152NYJ
57
John Miller

John Miller

Day 2G·Louisville·6'2", 303 lb·$7.3M($0M–$15.5M)·405.33⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: age.

Career outlookElite 7%(tails only)
Bust probability6%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #81BUF
58
Tre McBride

Tre McBride

Day 2WR·William & Mary·6'0", 210 lb·22.4 yrs·$4.8M($0M–$10.8M)·404.41⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: HS recruit rating. Bust risk moderate (39%).

Bust probability39%Moderate risk
Plays like
NFL pick #245TENY1 4.4
59
Ereck Flowers

Ereck Flowers

Day 2OT·Miami (FL)·6'6", 329 lb·$8.6M($0.3M–$16.8M)·405.31⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: HS recruit rating.

Career outlookElite 9%(tails only)
Bust probability· low confidence8%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #9NYG
60
Senquez Golson

Senquez Golson

Day 2CB·Mississippi·5'9", 176 lb·21.8 yrs·$13.2M($6.4M–$20M)·404.46⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: charting total career snaps; the knock: HS recruit rating. Bust risk moderate (40%).

Career outlookElite 14%(tails only)
Bust probability· low confidence40%Moderate risk
Plays like
NFL pick #56PIT
61
Tye Smith

Tye Smith

Day 2CB·Towson·6'0", 195 lb·22.0 yrs·$2.1M($0M–$8.9M)·404.60⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: HS recruit rating. Bust risk moderate (43%).

Bust probability· low confidence43%Moderate risk
Plays like
NFL pick #170SEAY1 0.2
62
Duke Johnson

Duke Johnson

Day 2RB·Miami (FL)·5'9", 207 lb·21.6 yrs·$11.9M($5.9M–$17.9M)·404.54⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: HS recruit rating.

Bust probability· low confidence26%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #77CLEY1 17.7
63
Rory Anderson

Rory Anderson

Day 2TE·South Carolina·6'5", 244 lb·22.6 yrs·$7.2M($1.2M–$13.2M)·404.73⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: college production, charting total career snaps. Bust risk elevated (63%).

Bust probability· low confidence63%Elevated risk
Plays like
NFL pick #254SFO
64
Jay Ajayi

Jay Ajayi

Day 2rank#64$1.7MRB·Boise St.·6'0", 221 lb·21.9 yrs·$4.2M($0M–$10.3M)·404.57⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: age.

Bust probability· low confidence11%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #149MIAY1 10.3
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