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2015 NFL Draft prospect
Jameis Winston
age 21.3 · 6'4" · 231 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 30% and the realistic range is No. 115 to No. 212.
Limited public-board coverage (0 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Jameis Winston at pick #46; he was actually picked #1 by TAM. 3 NFL seasons in, he's producing like a real starter (grading 12.1 of 20 per season). So far, the league's aggression looks right. Model expects a second-deal AAV around $17M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
High conviction#46QB·Florida St.
The league moved faster than our board — TAM took him at No. 1, 45 picks ahead of our No. 46 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk1
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports