Safety S
Tackles + PBUs + speed + Senior Bowl. The bust model is weakest at safety — treat predictions as directional.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many safeties land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 13 safeties with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2015 board, tier by tier.
The top shelf is bare: no safety in the 2015 class earns a blue-chip grade.
Landon Collins out of Alabama is the first-round tier by himself, projected No. 12 overall. Then the board falls off a cliff — 25 projected picks between Collins and Adrian Amos, the next name down.
Adrian Amos out of Penn St. fronts a three-man Day 2 tier at No. 37 overall, with Thompson and Thompson filling it out. Then the board falls off a cliff — 30 projected picks between Thompson and Damarious Randall, the next name down.
The Day 3 tier runs 9 deep, opening with Damarious Randall out of Arizona St. at No. 111 and closing with James Sample at No. 233.