Refreshed just now
2015 NFL Draft prospect
Nate Orchard
age 22.3 · 6'3" · 250 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 26% and the realistic range is No. 26 to No. 152.
Big 12→ CLE's 2015 class
Limited public-board coverage (0 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Nate Orchard at pick #17; he was actually picked #51 by CLE. 3 NFL seasons in, he's carved out a genuine role (grading 7.8 of 20 per season). So far, that's a point for our board. Model expects a second-deal AAV around $13M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Speculative#17EDGE·Utah
We had him No. 17 on draft night; CLE didn't call his name until No. 51 — a 34-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk1
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports