Edge rusher EDGE
Sacks + TFLs per game + first-step quickness. Pass-rush production genuinely predicts at this position — one of the model's most trusted groups.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many edge rushers land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 21 edge rushers with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2015 board, tier by tier.
Danielle Hunter out of LSU is the blue-chip tier by himself, projected No. 6 overall. The break below is soft: Leonard Williams projects just 2 projected picks after Hunter, so the tier line is a label more than a wall.
The first-round tier runs 5 deep, opening with Leonard Williams out of USC at No. 8 and closing with Frank Clark at No. 21. Mind the gap after Clark: Za'Darius Smith is next, and he is 21 picks away. One caution flag: the bust model — a group it reads well at edge rusher — puts Shaquille Riddick at 44 percent.
Two names carry a Day 2 grade — Za'Darius Smith in front at No. 42, Shane Ray close behind at No. 95. There is a real step down from there — Brian Mihalik sits 15 projected picks behind Ray.
Brian Mihalik leads a 13-deep Day 3 group — the meat of the EDGE board — starting at a projected No. 110 overall. One caution flag: the bust model — a group it reads well at edge rusher — puts Owamagbe Odighizuwa at 78 percent.