Quarterback QB
The hardest position to model. Tape, processing, and off-script play matter more than box-score numbers — we lean heavily on scout consensus and completion rate over expected.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many quarterbacks land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 7 quarterbacks with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2015 board, tier by tier.
The top shelf is bare: no quarterback in the 2015 class earns a blue-chip grade.
Nobody here. The class simply skips the first-round tier at quarterback.
The Day 2 tier runs from Brett Hundley at No. 45 down to Sean Mannion at No. 103. The drop behind Mannion is the story — Garrett Grayson does not come off the board for another 118 picks.
Three quarterbacks carry a Day 3 grade, and Garrett Grayson heads the group at a projected No. 221 overall.