The third receipt

The Accountability Index

Every April, everyone's a draft expert. This page keeps score: each analyst's archived pre-draft board, graded against what their ranked players actually became in the NFL — the same standard our own model answers to, and the same one your locked board will.

The ruler: we grade each archived board against what its players actually became across their first four NFL seasons — the rookie deal — position-fairly, so a hit on a guard counts like a hit on a receiver. Analysts need at least two graded classes to be ranked; newer classes slide in as their fourth NFL season completes.

This is the same table, same data, same order as the analyst leaderboard — the canonical version, with filters, team blogs and every analyst's full receipt page. Kiper, Brugler, McShay and the PFF board aren't rankable yet; the leaderboard discloses why.

Rows are ranked by overall grade — foresight 55 percent, top-32 hits 30 percent, bust avoidance 15 percent — so a long, strong record outranks a hot streak in any single column.

#AnalystOutlet typeClasses gradedForesightTop-32 hitsGrade
BarConsensus
The average of every public board — the bar any single analyst has to clear.
Benchmark5+0.5026%A
1ESPN Scouts Inc.National5+0.4828%A
2Tankathon staffAggregator3+0.4228%A
3Drafttek staffAggregator4+0.4228%A
4NBC Sports · Thor NystromNational2+0.4027%A−
5CBS Sports · Josh EdwardsNational2+0.3530%A−
6Sporting News · Vinnie IyerNational3+0.3926%A−
7Rotoworld · Josh NorrisNational2+0.3727%A−
8The Draft Network · Joe MarinoNational3+0.3627%B+
9Draft Wire · Luke EasterlingNational3+0.3625%B+
10Bleacher Report staffNational2+0.3624%B+
11Daniel Jeremiah (NFL Network)Marquee5+0.3226%B+
12SB Nation · Dan KadarNational3+0.3124%B
13Bleacher Report · Matt MillerMarquee3+0.2726%B
14The Draft Network · Kyle CrabbsNational3+0.3023%B
15The Draft Network staffNational2+0.2924%B
16theScore staffNational2+0.2024%C+
17CBS Sports · Chris TrapassoNational4+0.1726%C+

How to read this honestly

These are archived public boards — no cherry-picking, no retroactive edits. Foresight measures whether an analyst's ordering predicted rookie-deal value, position-fairly (a hit on a guard counts like a hit on a receiver); it's a rank correlation, where 0 is a coin flip and +0.3 is genuinely strong. Two classes is the minimum to appear; small samples still carry real luck, which is why the class count sits next to every number. Others have graded analysts against outcomes before in one-off studies — this index's job is to do it continuously, on a public ruler, every cycle.

Our own model answers to a harder version of the same question — full-career value across 2017–2024 — on the track record page. Nobody gets to grade the industry without grading themselves first.