Wide receiver WR
Yards-per-route + breakout age + production trajectory + RAS-vs-production. The model's most accurate read among the skill positions.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many receivers land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 34 receivers with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2015 board, tier by tier.
The top shelf is bare: no receiver in the 2015 class earns a blue-chip grade.
Three receivers carry a first-round grade, and Dorial Green-Beckham heads the group at a projected No. 13 overall. The drop to Stefon Diggs is 14 projected picks: a step, not a cliff.
The Day 2 tier runs from Stefon Diggs at No. 41 down to Sammie Coates at No. 75. Mind the gap after Coates: Tyler Lockett is next, and he is 32 picks away. The risk in the group is Tre McBride: 39 percent by a bust model that has earned trust at receiver.
Tyler Lockett leads a 27-deep Day 3 group — the meat of the WR board — starting at a projected No. 107 overall. Kaelin Clay carries the tier's risk, a 50 percent bust probability from a model with real signal at receiver.