Running back RB
Production + breakout age + age-at-draft are the primary signals. Volume is heavily devalued vs the 2010s.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many running backs land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 18 running backs with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2015 board, tier by tier.
Only T.J. Yeldon carries a blue-chip grade at running back — the Alabama product projects No. 3 overall. Then the board falls off a cliff — 26 projected picks between Yeldon and Todd Gurley, the next name down.
Todd Gurley out of Georgia is the first-round tier by himself, projected No. 29 overall. Mind the gap after Gurley: Duke Johnson is next, and he is 33 picks away.
The Day 2 tier runs from Duke Johnson at No. 62 down to Ameer Abdullah at No. 71. The drop behind Abdullah is the story — David Cobb does not come off the board for another 47 picks.
This is where the class lives: 12 running backs carry a Day 3 grade, with David Cobb out of Minnesota at the front of the line at No. 118 overall.