Guard G
Same inputs as tackle, with slightly more emphasis on Senior Bowl + Pro Day testing.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many guards land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 18 guards with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2015 board, tier by tier.
Mark Glowinski out of West Virginia is the blue-chip tier by himself, projected No. 1 overall. There is a real step down from there — Jeremiah Poutasi sits 13 projected picks behind Glowinski.
Jeremiah Poutasi and Trent Brown make up the first-round tier, projected No. 14 and No. 28 overall. The drop to Mitch Morse is 11 projected picks: a step, not a cliff. No red flags either — the tier's worst bust number is just 7 percent, from a model that reads guards well.
This is where the class lives: 7 guards carry a Day 2 grade, with Mitch Morse out of Missouri at the front of the line at No. 39 overall. Barely a seam here — Laken Tomlinson comes off just 5 picks later. Notably clean, too — nobody in the group trips the bust model, which has real signal at guard.
The Day 3 tier runs 8 deep, opening with Laken Tomlinson out of Duke at No. 106 and closing with Ian Silberman at No. 207.