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2015 NFL Draft prospect
Trent Brown
On the live board, bust risk sits at 6% and the realistic range is No. 37 to No. 163.
Limited public-board coverage (0 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Trent Brown at pick #28; he was actually picked #244 by SFO. Model expects a second-deal AAV around $14M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Low conviction#28G·Florida
We had him No. 28 on draft night; SFO didn't call his name until No. 244 — a 216-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Trent Brown at #28 on draft night — a 1st round grade — and SFO took him at No. 244, 216 picks later than our grade. Bust risk projects at 6%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk2
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports