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2015 NFL Draft prospect
A.J. Derby
age 23.6
On the live board, bust risk sits at 22% and the realistic range is No. 121 to No. 218.
Limited public-board coverage (0 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded A.J. Derby at pick #52; he was actually picked #202 by NWE. 2 NFL seasons in, he's carved out a genuine role (grading 8.1 of 20 per season), and the second-contract question is still open — no new deal yet. So far, that's a point for our board.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Speculative#52TE·Arkansas
We had him No. 52 on draft night; NWE didn't call his name until No. 202 — a 150-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk4
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports