Offensive tackle OT
Athleticism + games started + Senior Bowl invite carry most of the weight — college stats say little about offensive line play.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many offensive tackles land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 20 offensive tackles with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2015 board, tier by tier.
The top shelf is bare: no offensive tackle in the 2015 class earns a blue-chip grade.
The first-round tier is a pair: D.J. Humphries out of Florida at No. 16, with Andrus Peat at No. 25 behind him. After Peat the board breathes — Cedric Ogbuehi projects 10 picks later. No red flags either — the tier's worst bust number is just 4 percent, from a model that reads offensive tackles well.
This is where the class lives: 13 offensive tackles carry a Day 2 grade, with Cedric Ogbuehi out of Texas A&M at the front of the line at No. 35 overall. There is a real step down from there — Corey Robinson sits 19 projected picks behind Rodgers. Notably clean, too — nobody in the group trips the bust model, which has real signal at offensive tackle.
The Day 3 tier runs 5 deep, opening with Corey Robinson out of South Carolina at No. 123 and closing with Denzelle Good at No. 200. No red flags either — the tier's worst bust number is just 15 percent, from a model that reads offensive tackles well.