Quarterback QB
The hardest position to model. Tape, processing, and off-script play matter more than box-score numbers — we lean heavily on scout consensus and completion rate over expected.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many quarterbacks land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 15 quarterbacks with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2016 board, tier by tier.
No blue-chip quarterback this cycle — Carson Wentz is the class's best, and he carries the next grade down.
Two names carry a first-round grade — Carson Wentz in front at No. 13, Jared Goff close behind at No. 27. No cliff at the bottom, either: Paxton Lynch is 8 projected picks behind Goff. The room is higher on Jared Goff than we are: consensus No. 9 to our No. 27.
Only Paxton Lynch carries a Day 2 grade at quarterback — the Memphis product projects No. 35 overall. The drop behind Lynch is the story — Christian Hackenberg does not come off the board for another 97 picks.
This is where the class lives: 12 quarterbacks carry a Day 3 grade, with Christian Hackenberg out of Penn St. at the front of the line at No. 132 overall. Kevin Hogan is the tier's dissent — the room ranks him No. 37, our board waits until No. 252.