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2016 NFL Draft prospect
Kevin Hogan
age 23.5 · 6'3" · 218 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 26% and the realistic range is No. 96 to No. 251.
rank#252
Limited public-board coverage (1 board) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Kevin Hogan at pick #252; he was actually picked #162 by KAN. 2 NFL seasons in, he's carved out a genuine role (grading 9.6 of 20 per season). Model expects a second-deal AAV around $5M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Speculative#252QB·Stanford
The league moved faster than our board — KAN took him at No. 162, 90 picks ahead of our No. 252 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Kevin Hogan at #252 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and KAN took him at No. 162, 90 picks earlier than our grade. The model's case leans on his age curve. Bust risk projects at 26%, near the position baseline. The room had him #37 pre-draft; our board sat 215 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 7, and it updates whenever the model does. See for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk3
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports