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2016 NFL Draft prospect
Dak Prescott
age 22.7
On the live board, bust risk sits at 25% and the realistic range is No. 78 to No. 233.
rank#234
Limited public-board coverage (2 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Dak Prescott at pick #234; he was actually picked #135 by DAL. 2 NFL seasons in, he's producing like a real starter (grading 14.0 of 20 per season). So far, the league's aggression looks right. Model expects a second-deal AAV around $45M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Speculative#234QB·Mississippi St.
The league moved faster than our board — DAL took him at No. 135, 99 picks ahead of our No. 234 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Dak Prescott at #234 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and DAL took him at No. 135, 99 picks earlier than our grade. Bust risk projects at 25%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #64 pre-draft; our board sat 170 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — and it updates whenever the model does. See for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk3
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports