Refreshed just now
2016 NFL Draft prospect
Brandon Allen
age 23.6 · 6'1" · 217 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 30% and the realistic range is No. 82 to No. 237.
rank#238
Limited public-board coverage (1 board) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Brandon Allen at pick #238; he was actually picked #201 by JAX.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Speculative#238QB·Arkansas
The league moved faster than our board — JAX took him at No. 201, 37 picks ahead of our No. 238 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Brandon Allen at #238 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and JAX took him at No. 201, 37 picks earlier than our grade. The model's case leans on his age curve. Bust risk projects at 30%, near the position baseline. The room had him #126 pre-draft; our board sat 112 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 7, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk4
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports