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2016 NFL Draft prospect
Jared Goff
age 21.5 · 6'4" · 215 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 21% and the realistic range is No. 9 to No. 70.
rank#27
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Jared Goff at pick #27; he was actually picked #1 by LAR. 2 NFL seasons in, he's carved out a genuine role (grading 9.2 of 20 per season). The 4-tier model has him as a likely role. Model expects a second-deal AAV around $44M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Medium conviction#27QB·California
The league moved faster than our board — LAR took him at No. 1, 26 picks ahead of our No. 27 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Jared Goff at #27 on draft night — a 1st round grade — and LAR took him at No. 1, 26 picks earlier than our grade. The model's case leans on scout consensus and broad top-100 board coverage. Bust risk projects at 21%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #9 pre-draft; our board sat 18 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 1, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk0
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports