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2016 NFL Draft prospect
Christian Hackenberg
age 21.2 · 6'4" · 223 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 29% and the realistic range is No. 52 to No. 240.
rank#132
Big Ten→ NYJ's 2016 class
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Christian Hackenberg at pick #132; he was actually picked #51 by NYJ. Model expects a second-deal AAV around $6M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
High conviction#132QB·Penn St.
The league moved faster than our board — NYJ took him at No. 51, 81 picks ahead of our No. 132 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Christian Hackenberg at #132 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and NYJ took him at No. 51, 81 picks earlier than our grade. Bust risk projects at 29%, near the position baseline. The room had him #72 pre-draft; our board sat 60 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 4, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk4
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports