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2020 NFL Draft prospect
Tommy Stevens
age 23.4
On the live board, bust risk sits at 26% and the realistic range is No. 89 to No. 241.
Limited public-board coverage (0 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Tommy Stevens at pick #226; he was actually picked #240 by NOR. 1 NFL season in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 3.2 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $0.7M a year. The 4-tier model leans toward the bust tier as the most likely outcome; elite upside is only 4%. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 0% peak across 1 seasons).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
High conviction#226QB·Mississippi St.
We had him No. 226 on draft night, and the league mostly agreed — NOR took him at No. 240. The seasons since are the scoreboard.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production1
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk4
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps5
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports