Quarterback QB
The hardest position to model. Tape, processing, and off-script play matter more than box-score numbers — we lean heavily on scout consensus and completion rate over expected.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many quarterbacks land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 10 quarterbacks with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2017 board, tier by tier.
The top shelf is bare: no quarterback in the 2017 class earns a blue-chip grade.
Only Deshaun Watson carries a first-round grade at quarterback — the Clemson product projects No. 16 overall. Mind the gap after Watson: Mitchell Trubisky is next, and he is 22 picks away.
Three quarterbacks carry a Day 2 grade, and Mitchell Trubisky heads the group at a projected No. 38 overall. Mind the gap after Kizer: Davis Webb is next, and he is 91 picks away. The room is higher on DeShone Kizer than we are: consensus No. 39 to our No. 67.
This is where the class lives: 6 quarterbacks carry a Day 3 grade, with Davis Webb out of California at the front of the line at No. 158 overall. Brad Kaaya is the tier's dissent — the room ranks him No. 68, our board waits until No. 217.