Quarterback QB
The hardest position to model. Tape, processing, and off-script play matter more than box-score numbers — we lean heavily on scout consensus and completion rate over expected.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many quarterbacks land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 13 quarterbacks with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2018 board, tier by tier.
Baker Mayfield out of Oklahoma is the blue-chip tier by himself, projected No. 3 overall. The drop to Josh Rosen is 10 projected picks: a step, not a cliff.
The first-round tier is a pair: Josh Rosen out of UCLA at No. 13, with Sam Darnold at No. 29 behind him. Then the board falls off a cliff — 24 projected picks between Darnold and Josh Allen, the next name down. One split worth knowing: consensus puts Sam Darnold at No. 10, 19 spots above our call.
Josh Allen out of Wyoming fronts a four-man Day 2 tier at No. 53 overall, with Rudolph and Lauletta filling it out. The drop behind Lauletta is the story — Luke Falk does not come off the board for another 67 picks. Inside the tier, the model's fight is Kyle Lauletta: it says No. 84, the room says No. 155.
Luke Falk leads a 6-deep Day 3 group — the meat of the QB board — starting at a projected No. 151 overall. Tanner Lee carries the tier's risk, a 47 percent bust probability from a model with real signal at quarterback.