Refreshed just now
2015 NFL Draft prospect
Garrett Grayson
age 23.9
On the live board, bust risk sits at 31% and the realistic range is No. 138 to No. 272.
Limited public-board coverage (0 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Garrett Grayson at pick #221; he was actually picked #75 by NOR. Model expects a second-deal AAV around $15M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Speculative#221QB·Colorado St.
The league moved faster than our board — NOR took him at No. 75, 146 picks ahead of our No. 221 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Garrett Grayson at #221 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and NOR took him at No. 75, 146 picks earlier than our grade. Bust risk projects at 31%, near the position baseline.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk4
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports