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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. 2018 board/
  3. Logan Woodside
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Logan Woodside
2018 NFL Draft prospect

Logan Woodside

QB·Toledo
age 23.2 · 6'1" · 213 lb

On the live board, bust risk sits at 28% and the realistic range is No. 108 to No. 260.

245CompGarrett Grayson
→ CIN's 2018 class
Print sheet
⚠Limited public-board coverage (0 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality

The model graded Logan Woodside at pick #245; he was actually picked #249 by CIN. 4 NFL seasons in, he's carved out a genuine role (grading 9.9 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $0.5M a year. The 4-tier model has him as a likely role. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 1% peak across 4 seasons).

Logan WoodsideQBDraftanomics #245
Print
Dossier
OverviewScouting reportWhy this gradeConsensusProduction4Risk4Team fit5Will he be there?Comps5Film & notes

Overview

Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take

Draftanomics Rank
Speculative
#245QB·Toledo

We had him No. 245 on draft night, and the league mostly agreed — CIN took him at No. 249. The seasons since are the scoreboard.

Scouting report

The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet

Why this grade

Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English

Consensus

The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it

Production4

Measurables, traits, and college play quality

Risk4

Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem

Team fit5

How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes

Will he be there?

Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks

Comps5

Historical players this prospect resembles

Film & notes

Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports

Draftanomics's take

Draftanomics had Logan Woodside at #245 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and CIN took him at No. 249. Bust risk projects at 28%, near the position baseline.

Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 7, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.

Draftanomics Pick?
#245
Day 3range #108–#260 · volatile
Bust Probability?
28%
1.14× QB class avg (25%)
≈ class avg
Model trust: MODERATE
Actual NFL Pick?
#249
CIN · Rd 7
Career Outcome · 4 seasons?
39.5
9.9 / season avg
Career outlook

Career outlook

How this is built →
5-year career arc
Elite
3%
Bust
33%
Starter
16%
Role
47%

Read the two ends and skim the middle: the model has a real track record telling stars and busts apart, but “solid starter vs. rotation guy” is close to a coin flip from public data — that's why those two bars are grayed. For his odds of outright busting, the Bust-risk panel next door is the number to trust.

Second contract · signed
$0.5M/yr
2 years, $1M total.
We projected $4.9M/yr on draft night — richer than the market paid.
Bust risk
0%
comp-based — 0 of 4 closest comps busted
Model says: 28%⚠ the position bust model has no real track record here — trust the comps above instead
Public-board consensus

No public-board coverage yet.

Pin a team in your account to see how this prospect fits your roster + cap.
Scout note
Private to this device — saved to your browser, never sent to a server.
Empty notes are auto-deleted.
Verdict
Aligned
Gap (actual − predicted)
+4

Film

Highlight reels indexed from YouTube. Loads only when you press play.

The grade is held down by age, how many boards rank him top-100, and scout consensus.

Age
-0.04
Scout consensus
-0.02
Conference strength
-0.01

Model read

Model grade
0.25 of 1
Confidence?
99%
Predicted round
7

The grade is the 0-to-1 score the board sorts by — it only means something next to the rest of this class, which is why the rank above it is the number to quote.

Pulling the boards…
Mock-draft consensus
Pulling the mocks…
NFL play quality?
0
/ peak 1
Below-average play
Across 4 NFL seasons.
4-tier outlook?
Role
Model expects a depth / rotational role
Model trust: MODERATE
Elite
3%
Starter
16%
Role
47%
Bust
33%

Outcome shares from the 4-tier model. The Bust share here is a different model than the headline bust probability — for bust risk, use that number.

Career trajectory + forecast

Solid points = actual NFL snap share per season. Dashed extension = forecast for upcoming years.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6
Actual Forecast (comp-based)
Risk dashboard

Elevated risk — watch the flags

Risk score29· WATCH

Everything that could go wrong with Logan Woodside, gathered in one place — the most serious flags listed first.

  • Public-board coverage0 sources
    No public big board has ranked this prospect yet. The grade rests entirely on stats, measurables, and age — hold it loosely.
  • Predicted-pick range#108–260 · 152-pick spread
    The model's own projections scatter widely for this prospect — the landing spot is genuinely uncertain.
  • Bust probability28%
    Modest bust risk — normal territory for the position.
  • Age23.2 yrs
    Within the typical QB draft-age band (~23.5).

Case for / case against

Named, concrete signals — every flag cites numbers, comp players, or schedule context.

Reasons to fade
Missed entire rookie season
high
Drafted #249 by CIN in 2018 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
Older prospect
medium
Age 23.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
Comp group has bust risk
medium
2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Jake Rudock, Connor Cook. Mixed signal from history.
Reasons to buy
Consensus says higher
medium
1 board have him at mean rank #210; model has him #245 — a 35-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
Scheme context
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Teams likely to draft

Based on each team's roster depth at QB, age, and recent capital invested.

SF#1 fit
Need at positionSevereQuality starters0Roster spots short1Recent picks spent hereLittle
ARI#2 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters1Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle
NE#3 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters1Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle
NO#4 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters1Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle
ATL#5 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters1Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle

Historical comps

Side-by-side with top comps →

Closest historical matches among prior QB prospects who were drafted, by overall statistical profile. A smaller distance means a closer match.

PlayerPosYearPickSnap trajectoryCareer arcDistance
Garrett GraysonQB2015#75no dataTBD2.02
Jake RudockQB2016#191
→0 pts
Bust2.44
Bryce PettyQB2015#103
→0 pts
Starter2.50
Connor CookQB2016#100
→0 pts
Bust2.60
Dak PrescottQB2016#135
→0 pts
Starter2.77
Scout reports
Paste in any scouting report you trust; Draftanomics pulls out the concrete claims so you can weigh them against the model on the same page.
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