On the live board, bust risk sits at 49% and the realistic range is No. 81 to No. 261.
Justice Haynes turned a featured workload into 857 rushing yards on 121 carries in 2025, averaging 7.1 yards per carry and scoring 10 rushing touchdowns after posting a 5.7 average and seven scores the year before. The model tags him a projected starter at 41 percent, but it slots him at No. 180 on its board, well behind the consensus mark of No. 128 — a gap that says the room has already bought in ahead of the numbers.
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Our two reads split on him — the consensus-calibrated view runs much hotter than the board slot, and no public boards rank him yet to break the tie. Treat the range as wide.
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Historical players this prospect resembles
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports
Draftanomics ranks Justice Haynes at #180 overall — a Day 3 grade. Bust risk projects at 49%, elevated against the position baseline.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 6, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Read the two ends and skim the middle: the model has a real track record telling stars and busts apart, but “solid starter vs. rotation guy” is close to a coin flip from public data — that's why those two bars are grayed. For his odds of outright busting, the Bust-risk panel next door is the number to trust.
The bracketed ranges show how far each number could reasonably move — they come from how 23–57 similar players in past drafts actually turned out.
No public-board coverage yet.
Highlight reels indexed from YouTube. Loads only when you press play.
The grade is held down by how many boards rank him top-100, his charted total career snaps, and scout consensus.
The grade is the 0-to-1 score the board sorts by — it only means something next to the rest of this class, which is why the rank above it is the number to quote.
Outcome shares from the 4-tier model. The Bust share here is a different model than the headline bust probability — for bust risk, use that number.
Everything that could go wrong with Justice Haynes, gathered in one place — the most serious flags listed first.
Named, concrete signals — every flag cites numbers, comp players, or schedule context.
Closest historical matches among prior RB / WR / TE prospects who were drafted, by overall statistical profile. A smaller distance means a closer match.
| Player | Pos | Year | Pick | Snap trajectory | Career arc | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Harvey | RB | 2025 | #60 | no data | TBD | 3.10 |
| Devin Neal | RB | 2025 | #184 | no data | TBD | 3.20 |
| Damien Martinez | RB | 2025 | #223 | no data | TBD | 3.22 |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB | 2022 | #151 | ↓13 pts | Contributor | 3.38 |
| LeQuint Allen | RB | 2025 | #236 | no data | TBD | 3.83 |
Roster-based need returns once the 2026 season is played — grading this year’s teams on last year’s depth chart would be guessing. What’s knowable now: the teams holding picks around No. 180, and which of them already spent premium capital at RB / WR / TE in the 2026 draft.
Gold means no recent premium investment at RB / WR / TE — the cleaner fit on paper. Grey means they already spent one.