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2021 NFL Draft prospect
Earnest Brown IV
age 22.3 · 6'4" · 270 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 78% and the realistic range is No. 136 to No. 270.
Big Ten→ LAR's 2021 class
Limited public-board coverage (0 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Earnest Brown IV at pick #219; he was actually picked #174 by LAR. 3 NFL seasons in, he's carved out a genuine role (grading 9.5 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $0.8M a year. The 4-tier model leans toward the bust tier as the most likely outcome; elite upside is only 2%. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 1% peak across 3 seasons).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
High conviction#219EDGE·Northwestern
The league moved faster than our board — LAR took him at No. 174, 45 picks ahead of our No. 219 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production3
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk5
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps5
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports