Edge rusher EDGE
Sacks + TFLs per game + first-step quickness. Pass-rush production genuinely predicts at this position — one of the model's most trusted groups.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many edge rushers land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 24 edge rushers with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2019 board, tier by tier.
Zach Allen out of Boston Col. is the blue-chip tier by himself, projected No. 1 overall. Barely a seam here — Brian Burns comes off just 7 picks later.
Four edge rushers carry a first-round grade, and Brian Burns heads the group at a projected No. 8 overall. The drop to Chase Winovich is 14 projected picks: a step, not a cliff. No red flags either — the tier's worst bust number is just 8 percent, from a model that reads edge rushers well.
Four edge rushers carry a Day 2 grade, and Chase Winovich heads the group at a projected No. 46 overall. After Collier the board breathes — Michael Dogbe projects 10 picks later. Inside the tier, the model's fight is Oshane Ximines: it says No. 91, the room says No. 125.
This is where the class lives: 15 edge rushers carry a Day 3 grade, with Michael Dogbe out of Temple at the front of the line at No. 111 overall. The room is higher on Jaylon Ferguson than we are: consensus No. 72 to our No. 183.