Edge rusher EDGE
Sacks + TFLs per game + first-step quickness. Pass-rush production genuinely predicts at this position — one of the model's most trusted groups.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many edge rushers land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 22 edge rushers with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2018 board, tier by tier.
Bradley Chubb out of North Carolina St. is the blue-chip tier by himself, projected No. 5 overall. The drop to Marcus Davenport is 13 projected picks: a step, not a cliff.
Marcus Davenport out of Texas-San Antonio is the first-round tier by himself, projected No. 18 overall. Then the board falls off a cliff — 26 projected picks between Davenport and Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, the next name down.
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo leads a 6-deep Day 2 group — the meat of the EDGE board — starting at a projected No. 44 overall. After Ejiofor the board breathes — Lorenzo Carter projects 12 picks later. Inside the tier, the model's fight is Dorance Armstrong Jr.: it says No. 77, the room says No. 137.
The Day 3 tier runs 14 deep, opening with Lorenzo Carter out of Georgia at No. 116 and closing with Kylie Fitts at No. 238. Jalyn Holmes is the tier's dissent — the room ranks him No. 63, our board waits until No. 236.