Edge rusher EDGE
Sacks + TFLs per game + first-step quickness. Pass-rush production genuinely predicts at this position — one of the model's most trusted groups.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many edge rushers land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 19 edge rushers with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2017 board, tier by tier.
Jonathan Allen and Myles Garrett make up the blue-chip tier, projected No. 1 and No. 6 overall. No cliff at the bottom, either: Solomon Thomas is 3 projected picks behind Garrett. And the floor is solid: the bust model, reliable for edge rushers, clears everyone here.
Four edge rushers carry a first-round grade, and Solomon Thomas heads the group at a projected No. 9 overall. No cliff at the bottom, either: Taco Charlton is 3 projected picks behind Rivers. Derek Rivers is the argument in this tier — No. 31 on our board against a consensus No. 56.
Taco Charlton out of Michigan fronts a four-man Day 2 tier at No. 34 overall, with Walker and Wise filling it out. There is a real step down from there — Chris Wormley sits 17 projected picks behind Wise. DeMarcus Walker is the argument in this tier — No. 70 on our board against a consensus No. 113.
The Day 3 tier runs 9 deep, opening with Chris Wormley out of Michigan at No. 106 and closing with Pat O'Connor at No. 239. One caution flag: the bust model — a group it reads well at edge rusher — puts Pat O'Connor at 78 percent.