Wide receiver WR
Yards-per-route + breakout age + production trajectory + RAS-vs-production. The model's most accurate read among the skill positions.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many receivers land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 31 receivers with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2016 board, tier by tier.
No blue-chip receiver this cycle — Corey Coleman is the class's best, and he carries the next grade down.
The first-round tier runs from Corey Coleman at No. 10 down to Laquon Treadwell at No. 29. The drop behind Treadwell is the story — Sterling Shepard does not come off the board for another 34 picks. No red flags either — the tier's worst bust number is just 4 percent, from a model that reads receivers well.
Four receivers carry a Day 2 grade, and Sterling Shepard heads the group at a projected No. 63 overall. Mind the gap after Higgins: Leonte Carroo is next, and he is 26 picks away. Michael Thomas is the tier's dissent — the room ranks him No. 38, our board waits until No. 79.
The Day 3 tier runs 24 deep, opening with Leonte Carroo out of Rutgers at No. 112 and closing with Devin Lucien at No. 249. One caution flag: the bust model — a group it reads well at receiver — puts Aaron Burbridge at 50 percent.