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2016 NFL Draft prospect
Mike Thomas
age 21.7
On the live board, bust risk sits at 16% and the realistic range is No. 45 to No. 193.
rank#148$1.1M
Sun Belt→ LAR's 2016 class
Limited public-board coverage (2 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Mike Thomas at pick #148; he was actually picked #206 by LAR. 2 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 3.9 of 20 per season).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Medium conviction#148WR·Southern Miss
We had him No. 148 on draft night; LAR didn't call his name until No. 206 — a 58-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Mike Thomas at #148 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and LAR took him at No. 206, 58 picks later than our grade. Bust risk projects at 16%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #125 pre-draft; our board sat 23 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 5, and it updates whenever the model does. See for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk1
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports