Refreshed just now
rank#198$1M
Big Ten→ SFO's 2016 class
Limited public-board coverage (1 board) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Aaron Burbridge at pick #198; he was actually picked #213 by SFO. 1 NFL season in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 5.3 of 20 per season).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Speculative#198WR·Michigan St.
We had him No. 198 on draft night, and the league mostly agreed — SFO took him at No. 213. The seasons since are the scoreboard.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Aaron Burbridge at #198 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and SFO took him at No. 213. The model's case leans on his recruiting pedigree. Bust risk projects at 50%, elevated against the position baseline. The room had him #82 pre-draft; our board sat 116 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 6, and it updates whenever the model does. See for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports