3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Sutton Smith (age 23.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #145 (range #93-#197, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Tarell Basham (Bust), Ejuan Price (Bust), Takkarist McKinley (Bust). Ceiling is Derek Barnett (Bust); floor is Ejuan Price (Bust). Drafted #175 by PIT in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 176 spots ahead of the room (board #145 vs consensus #321) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.
Draftanomics projects Michael Dogbe (age 23.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #111 (range #79-#143, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Marcus Hardison, Ronald Blair (Starter), Brian Mihalik (Bust). Ceiling is Za'Darius Smith (Franchise); floor is Jonathan Woodard. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 259 spots ahead of the room (board #111 vs consensus #370), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Anthony Nelson (age 22.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #113 (range #100-#126, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kamalei Correa (Contributor), Jihad Ward (Starter), Leonard Williams (Franchise). Ceiling is Leonard Williams (Franchise); floor is Kamalei Correa (Contributor). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 27 spots below the room's consensus #86 — don't pay sticker price. The 27-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.