Draftanomics
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • 2028 way-too-early
  • Draft news
  • Simulator
  • The house mock
  • Draft order
  • Trade calculator
  • The Scouting Slate
  • Sleepers & reaches
  • Movers & fallers
  • Player comps
  • Dynasty rookie board
  • Track record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Analyst leaderboard
My rankingsAccount
Get the weekly →
Draftanomics

Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

Boards
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • Sleepers
Tools
  • Mock draft simulator
  • Plays Like
  • Dynasty rookie board
Track Record
  • Year-by-year results
  • Accountability Index
  • Our board, on the record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Methodology
  • Developers · free API
  • About
Account
  • My board
  • Weekly email
Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. 2017 board/
  3. Derek Barnett
Refreshed just now
Derek Barnett
2017 NFL Draft prospect

Derek Barnett

EDGE·Tennessee·SEC
age 20.8 · 6'3" · 259 lb

On the live board, bust risk sits at 0% and the realistic range is No. 3 to No. 58.

15rank#15$5.2MCompLeonard Williams
SEC→ PHI's 2017 class
Print sheet
Backtest: model vs. reality

The model graded Derek Barnett at pick #15; he was actually picked #14 by PHI. 1 NFL season in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 5.2 of 20 per season). The 4-tier model has him as a likely starter. Model expects a second-deal AAV around $12M/yr.

Derek BarnettEDGEDraftanomics #15
Print
Dossier
OverviewScouting reportWhy this gradeConsensusProductionRisk1Team fit5Will he be there?Comps5Film & notes

Overview

Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take

Draftanomics Rank
High conviction
#152nd-deal AAV at this slot$5.2M/yrEDGE·Tennessee

We had him No. 15 on draft night, and the league mostly agreed — PHI took him at No. 14. The seasons since are the scoreboard.

Scouting report

The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet

Why this grade

Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English

Consensus

The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it

Production

Measurables, traits, and college play quality

Risk1

Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem

Team fit5

How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes

Will he be there?

Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks

Comps5

Historical players this prospect resembles

Film & notes

Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports

Draftanomics's take

Draftanomics had Derek Barnett at #15 on draft night — a 1st round grade — and PHI took him at No. 14. The model's case leans on scout consensus and broad top-100 board coverage. Bust risk projects at 0%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade.

Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 1, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.

Draftanomics Pick?
#15
1st Roundrange #3–#58 · volatile
Bust Probability?
0%
0.00× EDGE / DL / LB class avg (27%)
safer than class avg
Model trust: MODERATE
Actual NFL Pick?
#14
PHI · Rd 1
Year 1 Outcome?
5.2
85% snap share
Career outlook

Career outlook

How this is built →
5-year career arc
Elite
14%[11–16]
Bust
18%[15–21]
Starter
39%[37–42]
Role
29%[28–31]

Read the two ends and skim the middle: the model has a real track record telling stars and busts apart, but “solid starter vs. rotation guy” is close to a coin flip from public data — that's why those two bars are grayed. For his odds of outright busting, the Bust-risk panel next door is the number to trust.

The bracketed ranges show how far each number could reasonably move — they come from how 23–57 similar players in past drafts actually turned out.

Projected second contract
$11.6M($2.3M–$20.9M)/yr model
Solid starter EDGE contract
Bust risk
0%
from a model with a graded track record at this positionsecond opinion: 0 of 4 closest historical comps busted (0%)
Public-board consensus

27 public boards track this prospect. Per-board breakdown loads with the live board.

Pin a team in your account to see how this prospect fits your roster + cap.
Scout note
Private to this device — saved to your browser, never sent to a server.
Empty notes are auto-deleted.
Verdict
Aligned
Gap (actual − predicted)
-1

Film

Highlight reels indexed from YouTube. Loads only when you press play.

Working in his favor: scout consensus, how many boards rank him top-100, and how many boards rank him top-50. Nothing in the profile pulled the grade down.

Scout consensus
+0.08
Positional consistency
-0.02
Age
+0.01
College production
+0.01

Model read

Model grade
0.81 of 1
Confidence?
99%
Predicted round
1

The grade is the 0-to-1 score the board sorts by — it only means something next to the rest of this class, which is why the rank above it is the number to quote.

Pulling the boards…
Mock-draft consensus
Pulling the mocks…
4-tier outlook?
Starter
Model expects a solid starter career
Model trust: MODERATE
Elite
14%
Starter
39%
Role
29%
Bust
18%

Outcome shares from the 4-tier model. The Bust share here is a different model than the headline bust probability — for bust risk, use that number.

Model market value
$11.6M
($2.3M – $20.9M)
solid starter pay
Model-predicted second-deal AAV ($M/yr).

Career trajectory + forecast

Solid points = actual NFL snap share per season. Dashed extension = forecast for upcoming years.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4
Actual Forecast (comp-based)
Risk dashboard

Risk profile is clean

Risk score12· CLEAN

Everything that could go wrong with Derek Barnett, gathered in one place — the most serious flags listed first.

  • Predicted-pick range#3–58 · 55-pick spread
    The model's own projections scatter widely for this prospect — the landing spot is genuinely uncertain.
  • Bust probability0%
    Low bust risk by the model's read.
  • Age20.8 yrs
    Within the typical EDGE draft-age band (~23.5).
  • Public-board coverage27 sources
    Plenty of public boards have a read — the grade is well corroborated.

Case for / case against

Named, concrete signals — every flag cites numbers, comp players, or schedule context.

Reasons to fade
No risk flags raised.
Reasons to buy
Strong comp group
high
4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Leonard Williams, Shane Ray, Nate Orchard (+1 more). The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Scheme context
Loading…

Teams likely to draft

Based on each team's roster depth at EDGE / DL / LB, age, and recent capital invested.

NE#1 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters10Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle
KC#2 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters8Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle
NO#3 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters9Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle
TB#4 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters10Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle
SF#5 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters9Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle

Historical comps

Side-by-side with top comps →

Closest historical matches among prior EDGE / DL / LB prospects who were drafted, by overall statistical profile. A smaller distance means a closer match.

PlayerPosYearPickSnap trajectoryCareer arcDistance
Leonard WilliamsEDGE2015#6
→0 pts
Franchise1.96
Shane RayEDGE2015#23
↑4 pts
Franchise2.08
Shaquille RiddickEDGE2015#158no dataTBD2.17
Nate OrchardEDGE2015#51
↓4 pts
Franchise2.18
Trey FlowersEDGE2015#101
→0 pts
Franchise2.27
Scout reports
Paste in any scouting report you trust; Draftanomics pulls out the concrete claims so you can weigh them against the model on the same page.
Loading…