Refreshed just now
2016 NFL Draft prospect
Ronald Blair
age 23.3
On the live board, bust risk sits at 9% and the realistic range is No. 39 to No. 227.
rank#119$1.2M
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Ronald Blair at pick #119; he was actually picked #142 by SFO. 2 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 6.7 of 20 per season). Model expects a second-deal AAV around $6M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Speculative#119EDGE·Appalachian St.
We had him No. 119 on draft night; SFO didn't call his name until No. 142 — a 23-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Ronald Blair at #119 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and SFO took him at No. 142, 23 picks later than our grade. The model's case leans on his age curve. Bust risk projects at 9%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #173 pre-draft; our board was 54 spots higher.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 4, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk2
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports