3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Luke Falk (age 23.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #151 (range #94-#208, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 45% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Sean Mannion (Franchise), Trevor Siemian (Franchise), Jake Rudock (Bust). Ceiling is Sean Mannion (Franchise); floor is Carson Wentz (Starter). Age 23.3 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #93 and the model won't take him before #151 — a 58-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Logan Woodside (age 23.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #245 (range #219-#271, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Garrett Grayson, Jake Rudock (Bust), Connor Cook (Bust). Ceiling is Bryce Petty (Starter); floor is Garrett Grayson. Drafted #249 by CIN in 2018 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #210 and the model won't take him before #245 — a 35-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Mike White (age 23.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #171 (range #122-#220, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Carson Wentz (Starter), Nate Sudfeld (Bust), Dak Prescott (Starter). Ceiling is Sean Mannion (Franchise); floor is Dak Prescott (Starter). Drafted #171 by DAL in 2018 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #82 and the model won't take him before #171 — a 88-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.