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2025 NFL Draft prospect
Jay Toia
age 21.8 · 6'2" · 342 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 33% and the realistic range is No. 91 to No. 241.
Big Ten→ DAL's 2025 class
Limited public-board coverage (0 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Jay Toia at pick #148; he was actually picked #217 by DAL. 1 NFL season in, he's barely gotten on the field (grading -3.2 of 20 per season). So far, the league's caution is winning the argument.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Jay Toia at #148 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and DAL took him at No. 217. Bust risk projects at 33%, near the position baseline.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 5, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk2
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps5
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports