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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. 2020 board/
  3. Justin Herron
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Justin Herron
2020 NFL Draft prospect

Justin Herron

OT·Wake Forest·ACC

On the live board, bust risk sits at 6% and the realistic range is No. 137 to No. 271.

220CompGreg Senat
ACC→ NWE's 2020 class
Print sheet
⚠Limited public-board coverage (0 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality

The model graded Justin Herron at pick #220; he was actually picked #195 by NWE. 4 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 6.8 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $1.1M a year. The 4-tier model has him as a likely role. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 0% peak across 4 seasons).

Justin HerronOTDraftanomics #220
Print
Dossier
OverviewScouting reportWhy this gradeConsensusProduction4Risk3Team fit5Will he be there?Comps5Film & notes

Overview

Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take

Draftanomics Rank
High conviction
#220OT·Wake Forest

The league moved faster than our board — NWE took him at No. 195, 25 picks ahead of our No. 220 grade. His career is settling that argument now.

Scouting report

The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet

Why this grade

Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English

Consensus

The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it

Production4

Measurables, traits, and college play quality

Risk3

Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem

Team fit5

How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes

Will he be there?

Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks

Comps5

Historical players this prospect resembles

Film & notes

Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports

Draftanomics's take

Draftanomics had Justin Herron at #220 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and NWE took him at No. 195, 25 picks earlier than our grade. Bust risk projects at 6%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade.

Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 6, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.

Draftanomics Pick?
#220
Day 3range #137–#271 · volatile
Bust Probability?
6%
0.50× Offensive line class avg (12%)
safer than class avg
Model trust: MODERATE
Actual NFL Pick?
#195
NWE · Rd 6
Career Outcome · 4 seasons?
27.3
6.8 / season avg
Career outlook

Career outlook

How this is built →
5-year career arc
Elite
2%
Bust
18%
Starter
3%
Role
76%

Read the two ends and skim the middle: the model has a real track record telling stars and busts apart, but “solid starter vs. rotation guy” is close to a coin flip from public data — that's why those two bars are grayed. For his odds of outright busting, the Bust-risk panel next door is the number to trust.

Second contract · signed
$1.1M/yr
1 years, $1M total.
We projected $2.1M/yr on draft night — close to the money.
Bust risk
33%
comp-based — 1 of 3 closest comps busted
Model says: 6%⚠ the Offensive line bust model has no real track record here — trust the comps above instead
Public-board consensus

No public-board coverage yet.

Pin a team in your account to see how this prospect fits your roster + cap.
Scout note
Private to this device — saved to your browser, never sent to a server.
Empty notes are auto-deleted.
Verdict
Model lower than NFL
Gap (actual − predicted)
-25

Film

Highlight reels indexed from YouTube. Loads only when you press play.

Working in his favor: age. Working against him: how many boards rank him top-100 and his charted gap run block grade.

Age
+0.03
HS recruit rating
+0.02
Scout consensus
-0.02
Athleticism
-0.01

Model read

Model grade
0.34 of 1
Confidence?
71%
Predicted round
6

The grade is the 0-to-1 score the board sorts by — it only means something next to the rest of this class, which is why the rank above it is the number to quote.

Pulling the boards…
Mock-draft consensus
Pulling the mocks…
NFL play quality?
0
/ peak 0
Below-average play
Across 4 NFL seasons.
4-tier outlook?
Role
Model expects a depth / rotational role
Model trust: MODERATE
Elite
2%
Starter
3%
Role
76%
Bust
18%

Outcome shares from the 4-tier model. The Bust share here is a different model than the headline bust probability — for bust risk, use that number.

Career trajectory + forecast

Solid points = actual NFL snap share per season. Dashed extension = forecast for upcoming years.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4
Actual Forecast (comp-based)
Risk dashboard

Flags worth knowing

Risk score24· FLAGS

Everything that could go wrong with Justin Herron, gathered in one place — the most serious flags listed first.

  • Public-board coverage0 sources
    No public big board has ranked this prospect yet. The grade rests entirely on stats, measurables, and age — hold it loosely.
  • Predicted-pick range#137–271 · 134-pick spread
    The model's own projections scatter widely for this prospect — the landing spot is genuinely uncertain.
  • Bust probability6%
    Low bust risk by the model's read.

Case for / case against

Named, concrete signals — every flag cites numbers, comp players, or schedule context.

Reasons to fade
Average-to-below athletic profile
medium
RAS 3.96 (39th percentile at OT). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
Consensus skeptic
medium
1 board place him at mean rank #288; model has him #220 — a 68-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Reasons to buy
Promising comp group
medium
2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes hit Starter-or-better: Brandon Parker, Jordan Mailata.
Scheme context
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Teams likely to draft

Based on each team's roster depth at Offensive line, age, and recent capital invested.

TB#1 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters7Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle
KC#2 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters7Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle
GB#3 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters5Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle
SF#4 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters7Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle
NE#5 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters6Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle

Historical comps

Side-by-side with top comps →

Closest historical matches among prior Offensive line prospects who were drafted, by overall statistical profile. A smaller distance means a closer match.

PlayerPosYearPickSnap trajectoryCareer arcDistance
Greg SenatOT2018#212
→0 pts
Bust1.25
Julién DavenportOT2017#130no dataTBD1.26
Brandon ParkerOT2018#65
↓7 pts
Starter1.47
Will HoldenOT2017#157no dataTBD1.49
Jordan MailataOT2018#233
↑8 pts
Franchise1.59
Scout reports
Paste in any scouting report you trust; Draftanomics pulls out the concrete claims so you can weigh them against the model on the same page.
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