Offensive tackle OT
Athleticism + games started + Senior Bowl invite carry most of the weight — college stats say little about offensive line play.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many offensive tackles land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 15 offensive tackles with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2017 board, tier by tier.
Only Ryan Ramczyk carries a blue-chip grade at offensive tackle — the Wisconsin product projects No. 3 overall. The drop behind Ramczyk is the story — Garett Bolles does not come off the board for another 20 picks. The model is planting a flag on Ryan Ramczyk, 16 spots ahead of where the room ranks him (No. 19).
Garett Bolles and Cam Robinson make up the first-round tier, projected No. 23 and No. 27 overall. The drop behind Robinson is the story — Antonio Garcia does not come off the board for another 22 picks. And the floor is solid: the bust model, reliable for offensive tackles, clears everyone here.
The Day 2 tier runs from Antonio Garcia at No. 49 down to Will Holden at No. 103. Mind the gap after Holden: Julién Davenport is next, and he is 30 picks away. Inside the tier, the model's fight is Roderick Johnson: it says No. 58, the room says No. 149.
Julién Davenport leads a 8-deep Day 3 group — the meat of the OT board — starting at a projected No. 133 overall. No red flags either — the tier's worst bust number is just 15 percent, from a model that reads offensive tackles well.