Guard G
Same inputs as tackle, with slightly more emphasis on Senior Bowl + Pro Day testing.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many guards land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 17 guards with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2016 board, tier by tier.
The blue-chip shelf is one name deep: Cody Whitehair out of Kansas St., pegged at No. 6 overall. Then the board falls off a cliff — 27 projected picks between Whitehair and Joshua Garnett, the next name down. Cody Whitehair is the argument in this tier — No. 6 on our board against a consensus No. 29.
An empty tier, honestly labeled — no guard earns a first-round grade this cycle.
The Day 2 tier runs 10 deep, opening with Joshua Garnett out of Stanford at No. 33 and closing with Sebastian Tretola at No. 101. Then the board falls off a cliff — 43 projected picks between Tretola and Parker Ehinger, the next name down. Connor McGovern is the argument in this tier — No. 72 on our board against a consensus No. 133.
This is where the class lives: 6 guards carry a Day 3 grade, with Parker Ehinger out of Cincinnati at the front of the line at No. 144 overall. The room is higher on Parker Ehinger than we are: consensus No. 46 to our No. 144.