Edge rusher EDGE
Sacks + TFLs per game + first-step quickness. Pass-rush production genuinely predicts at this position — one of the model's most trusted groups.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many edge rushers land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 19 edge rushers with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2016 board, tier by tier.
No blue-chip edge rusher this cycle — Joey Bosa is the class's best, and he carries the next grade down.
Joey Bosa and Shaq Lawson make up the first-round tier, projected No. 8 and No. 31 overall. Barely a seam here — DeForest Buckner comes off just 3 picks later. Shaq Lawson is the tier's dissent — the room ranks him No. 7, our board waits until No. 31.
This is where the class lives: 7 edge rushers carry a Day 2 grade, with DeForest Buckner out of Oregon at the front of the line at No. 34 overall. After Correa the board breathes — Kevin Dodd projects 14 picks later. One caution flag: the bust model — a group it reads well at edge rusher — puts Bronson Kaufusi at 65 percent.
Kevin Dodd leads a 10-deep Day 3 group — the meat of the EDGE board — starting at a projected No. 117 overall. Shilique Calhoun is the tier's dissent — the room ranks him No. 42, our board waits until No. 131.