Refreshed just now
rank#164$1M
Limited public-board coverage (2 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Matt Judon at pick #164; he was actually picked #146 by BAL. 2 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 6.5 of 20 per season). Model expects a second-deal AAV around $17M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Medium conviction#164EDGE·Grand Valley St.
The league moved faster than our board — BAL took him at No. 146, 18 picks ahead of our No. 164 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Matt Judon at #164 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and BAL took him at No. 146. The model's case leans on his age curve. Bust risk projects at 22%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #137 pre-draft; our board sat 27 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 5, and it updates whenever the model does. See for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports