2 prospects · 2018 draft
Decisive factor: $52M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Sam Darnold (age 20.9 at draft) as a first-round pick at #29 (range #1-#71, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jared Goff (Starter), Connor Cook (Bust), Carson Wentz (Starter). Ceiling is Jared Goff (Starter); floor is Kevin Hogan (Starter). The call is a lean fade: the model sits 15 spots below the room's consensus #14 — don't pay sticker price. The 15-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Lamar Jackson (age 21.3 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #60 (range #19-#101, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jared Goff (Starter), Paxton Lynch (Starter), Dak Prescott (Starter). Ceiling is Jared Goff (Starter); floor is Kevin Hogan (Starter). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #29 and the model won't take him before #60 — a 31-spot markdown. The 31-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.