3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Mike Hughes (age 21.2 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #50 (range #1-#107, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jalen Ramsey (Starter), Maurice Canady (Bust), Kalan Reed (Backup). Ceiling is Jalen Ramsey (Starter); floor is Kalan Reed (Backup). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Maurice Canady, Kalan Reed, Zack Sanchez. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 15 spots below the room's consensus #35 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Isaiah Oliver (age 21.6 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #72 (range #14-#130, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Artie Burns (Starter), Kalan Reed (Backup), Kendall Fuller (Starter). Ceiling is Artie Burns (Starter); floor is Kalan Reed (Backup). 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Kalan Reed, Maurice Canady. Mixed signal from history. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 29 spots below the room's consensus #43 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Josh Jackson (age 22.1 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #38 (range #1-#96, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Kalan Reed (Backup), Maurice Canady (Bust), Eric Murray (Contributor). Ceiling is Jalen Ramsey (Starter); floor is Kalan Reed (Backup). 40-yard dash of 4.56s — historically corners above 4.55s rarely become NFL starters. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 15 spots below the room's consensus #23 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — cb slow 40 (4.56s) leads the case against.