2 prospects · 2018 draft
Decisive factor: $65M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV. Reinforced by a bust risk 45 points lower.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Josh Rosen (age 21.2 at draft) as a first-round pick at #13 (range #1-#37, wide band). Bust probability sits at 45% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jared Goff (Starter), Carson Wentz (Starter), Connor Cook (Bust). Ceiling is Jared Goff (Starter); floor is Christian Hackenberg. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #13 and the room's #12 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 45% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Josh Allen (age 21.9 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #53 (range #18-#88, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Carson Wentz (Starter), Connor Cook (Bust), Christian Hackenberg. Ceiling is Jared Goff (Starter); floor is Christian Hackenberg. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 22 spots below the room's consensus #31 — don't pay sticker price. The 22-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.