3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
−0.04 charting catch rate allowed avg; +0.03 age; +0.03 charting run def grade career avg
+0.03 charting def grade mean; −0.03 boards with him top-100; −0.02 HS recruit rating
Draftanomics projects Ahkello Witherspoon (age 22.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #129 (range #84-#174, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 3% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Eric Rowe (Franchise), Bobby McCain (Starter), Tye Smith (Bust). Ceiling is Marcus Peters (Franchise); floor is Bobby McCain (Starter). 2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Tye Smith, Charles Gaines. Mixed signal from history. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #87 and the model won't take him before #129 — a 42-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.