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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. 2017 board/
  3. Shaquill Griffin
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Shaquill Griffin
2017 NFL Draft prospect

Shaquill Griffin

CB·Central Florida·Big 12
age 21.8 · 6'0" · 194 lb

On the live board, bust risk sits at 8% and the realistic range is No. 42 to No. 219.

98rank#98$1.3MCompBobby McCain
Big 12→ SEA's 2017 class
Print sheet
⚠Limited public-board coverage (2 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality

The model graded Shaquill Griffin at pick #98; he was actually picked #90 by SEA. 1 NFL season in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 5.8 of 20 per season). Model expects a second-deal AAV around $19M/yr.

Shaquill GriffinCBDraftanomics #98
Print
Dossier
OverviewScouting reportWhy this gradeConsensusProductionRisk1Team fit5Will he be there?Comps5Film & notes

Overview

Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take

Draftanomics Rank
High conviction
#98CB·Central Florida

We had him No. 98 on draft night, and the league mostly agreed — SEA took him at No. 90. The seasons since are the scoreboard.

Scouting report

The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet

Why this grade

Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English

Consensus

The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it

Production

Measurables, traits, and college play quality

Risk1

Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem

Team fit5

How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes

Will he be there?

Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks

Comps5

Historical players this prospect resembles

Film & notes

Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports

Draftanomics's take

Draftanomics had Shaquill Griffin at #98 on draft night — a Day 2 grade — and SEA took him at No. 90. The model's case leans on his age curve. Bust risk projects at 8%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #127 pre-draft; our board was 29 spots higher.

Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 3, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.

Draftanomics Pick?
#98
Day 2range #42–#219 · volatile
Bust Probability?
8%
0.41× CB / S class avg (19%)
safer than class avg
Model trust: WEAK
Actual NFL Pick?
#90
SEA · Rd 3
Year 1 Outcome?
5.8
95% snap share
Career outlook

Career outlook

How this is built →
5-year career arc

Too early to project a career arc.

No public board has ranked this prospect and the model has no production, athletic, or NFL data to anchor on — any percentages here would be noise dressed up as precision. The outlook fills in once boards rank him or real numbers land.

Projected second contract
$18.6M($11.8M–$25.4M)/yr model
Top-tier starter CB money
Bust risk
60%
comp-based — 3 of 5 closest comps busted
Model says: 8%⚠ the CB / S bust model has no real track record here — trust the comps above instead
Public-board consensus

2 public boards track this prospect. Per-board breakdown loads with the live board.

Pin a team in your account to see how this prospect fits your roster + cap.
Scout note
Private to this device — saved to your browser, never sent to a server.
Empty notes are auto-deleted.
Verdict
Aligned
Gap (actual − predicted)
-8

Film

Highlight reels indexed from YouTube. Loads only when you press play.

Working in his favor: age and his charted run def grade career avg. Working against him: his charted catch rate allowed avg.

Age
+0.03
Athleticism
+0.02

Model read

Model grade
0.54 of 1
Confidence?
99%
Predicted round
3

The grade is the 0-to-1 score the board sorts by — it only means something next to the rest of this class, which is why the rank above it is the number to quote.

Pulling the boards…
Mock-draft consensus
Pulling the mocks…
4-tier outlook?

Not enough to go on yet — no public board ranks him and there's no production or testing data to anchor a career projection.

Model market value
$18.6M
($11.8M – $25.4M)
top-10% at position
Model-predicted second-deal AAV ($M/yr).

Career trajectory + forecast

Solid points = actual NFL snap share per season. Dashed extension = forecast for upcoming years.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4
Actual Forecast (comp-based)
Risk dashboard

Risk profile is clean

Risk score17· CLEAN

Everything that could go wrong with Shaquill Griffin, gathered in one place — the most serious flags listed first.

  • Predicted-pick range#42–219 · 177-pick spread
    The model's own projections scatter widely for this prospect — the landing spot is genuinely uncertain.
  • Public-board coverage2 sources
    Only a couple of public boards have a read on him — the grade has little outside corroboration.
  • Bust probability8%
    Low bust risk by the model's read.
  • Age21.8 yrs
    Within the typical CB draft-age band (~23).

Case for / case against

Named, concrete signals — every flag cites numbers, comp players, or schedule context.

Reasons to fade
Comp group bust rate
high
3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Tye Smith, D'Joun Smith, Ryan Murphy. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Reasons to buy
No opportunity flags raised.
Scheme context
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Teams likely to draft

Based on each team's roster depth at CB / S, age, and recent capital invested.

TB#1 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters6Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle
SF#2 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters8Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle
IND#3 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters9Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereHeavy
DEN#4 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters7Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereHeavy
CHI#5 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters7Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereHeavy

Historical comps

Side-by-side with top comps →

Closest historical matches among prior CB / S prospects who were drafted, by overall statistical profile. A smaller distance means a closer match.

PlayerPosYearPickSnap trajectoryCareer arcDistance
Bobby McCainCB2015#145
↑8 pts
Starter2.43
Tye SmithCB2015#170
↑43 pts
Bust2.56
D'Joun SmithCB2015#65
↓19 pts
Bust2.57
Eric RoweCB2015#47
↑11 pts
Franchise2.58
Ryan MurphyCB2015#248
→0 pts
Bust2.67
Scout reports
Paste in any scouting report you trust; Draftanomics pulls out the concrete claims so you can weigh them against the model on the same page.
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