3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jalen Myrick (age 22.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #178 (range #140-#216, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Alex Carter (Bust), Charles Gaines (Bust), Marcus Peters (Franchise). Ceiling is Marcus Peters (Franchise); floor is Bobby McCain (Starter). 2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Alex Carter, Charles Gaines. Mixed signal from history. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 71 spots ahead of the room (board #178 vs consensus #249), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Howard Wilson (age 21.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #141 (range #83-#199, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Charles Gaines (Bust), Marcus Peters (Franchise), Eric Rowe (Franchise). Ceiling is Marcus Peters (Franchise); floor is Eric Rowe (Franchise). Drafted #126 by CLE in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #92 and the model won't take him before #141 — a 48-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Rasul Douglas (age 22.7 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #72 (range #20-#124, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Marcus Peters (Franchise), Steven Nelson (Starter), Ryan Murphy (Bust). Ceiling is Marcus Peters (Franchise); floor is Steven Nelson (Starter). 40-yard dash of 4.59s — historically corners above 4.55s rarely become NFL starters. The call is a value lean: #72 against a consensus #88 is a 16-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with cb slow 40 (4.59s) the tax on that edge.