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2025 NFL Draft prospect
Alfred Collins
age 23.5 · 6'6" · 332 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 37% and the realistic range is No. 34 to No. 222.
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Alfred Collins at pick #114; he was actually picked #43 by SFO. 1 NFL season in, he's barely gotten on the field (grading -2.8 of 20 per season). The 4-tier model has him as a likely starter.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Alfred Collins at #114 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and SFO took him at No. 43. The model's case leans on broad top-100 board coverage and his recruiting pedigree. Bust risk projects at 37%, near the position baseline. The room had him #68 pre-draft; our board sat 46 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 4, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk3
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps5
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports