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2024 NFL Draft prospect
J.J. McCarthy
age 21.3 · 6'3" · 219 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 11% and the realistic range is No. 1 to No. 54.
rank#11CompTrevor Lawrence
Big Ten→ MIN's 2024 class
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded J.J. McCarthy at pick #11; he was actually picked #10 by MIN. 1 NFL season in, he's barely gotten on the field (grading 0.8 of 20 per season). The 4-tier model has him as a likely starter. Model expects a second-deal AAV around $9M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
High conviction#112nd-deal AAV at this slot$6.4M/yrQB·Michigan
We had him No. 11 on draft night, and the league mostly agreed — MIN took him at No. 10. The seasons since are the scoreboard.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk3
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps5
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports